It goes without saying that this BP oil spill is emotionally enraging, saddening, and frustrating all in equal measure. The hands of all parties involved are, quite literally, stained: BP, the Obama Administration, non-stop Republican advocates for off-shore drilling, and the American public for not wising up and demanding the unqualified termination of this type of business enterprise. Oil is an awful and dirty game to be involved in. How many more oil spills will convince this country to either wake up and admit that we have to abandon oil altogether (Republicans) or ditch the appeasing political half measures and transition to other forms of fuel (Democrats).
I sat down to write a light and funny post, I really did. I was thinking maybe something about Heidi and Spencer (has anyone else been watching I’m a Celebrity…Get Me Outta Here!?). But then I watched the news. After that happened, I wanted to write about the how ridiculous the news has gotten and how there isn’t really “news” anymore – there’s Bill O’Reilly and Keith Olbermann and Sean Hannity and Rachael Maddow. Opinion. But that’s boring and has been done to death. So, instead of writing about something that would be less boring than media analysis, I instead opted for something much, much more boring: namely, the Republican side of the 2012 presidential race.
At this point, the race is wide open. And it’s filled with all the usual Republican “stars:” Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich (still?) and Sarah Palin. Then, there are the second tier candidates that have the ambition, but may be lacking in star power or charisma – these types include Bobby Jindal, Tim Pawlenty, Charlie Crist, and Eric Cantor. Basically, the entire Republican Party will be running; hell, just check out the Wikipedia page.
Now, does anyone envision any of those names being able to beat Barack Obama come 2012? Mitt Romney!? Can you even begin to envision a President Gingrich (oh, God). Now admittedly, there is a lot of time for things to go wrong for the president before the race begins (and Democrats have turned screwing things up into an art form). But just in personal popularity (much different from political popularity) and sheer charisma, most if not all Republicans are at an immediate disadvantage against Barack Obama. Not to mention his best and strongest advantage: he’s the president and they’re not.
When in doubt and underdogs, Republicans always play to the lowest common denominator of American politics: pit “real, hard-working, plain-speakin’ Americans” against the “Washington Elites.” It worked twice for George W. Bush, and it’s the driving force behind the appeal of Sarah Palin. But Palin can’t get elected in a general election. She’s already too polarizing – garnering strong support from a quickly shrinking voting demographic while failing to capture a significant amount of women. So, what candidate can compete? What candidate can be plain spoken without being caricature, competent enough without seeming elitist, and experienced enough without being yesterday’s news (that yesterday’s news thing is about you, Newt)?
The answer: Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour. Most don’t know him now, but you will. What Barbour has, which no other Republican in the race can match, is appeal. He’s genial, funny, and relatable - he never comes across crass or harsh like so many Republicans do now since Rush has taken over. Barbour also possesses strong “Southern cred.” The Obama/Biden ticket was the first presidential ticket to be elected without a Southern male on it since Eisenhower defeated Adlai freaking Stevenson. This matters. Southerners never really accepted John McCain (for more than one reason) – there’s a reason politicians can sometimes be heard donning a fake southern accent when they campaign south of the Mason-Dixon. Obama tried to court these voters – I guess this was enough.
Adding to Barbour’s case is his strong conservative cred – that has gotten actual results. He took over a state budget in big trouble and balanced it in two years (due in part to drastic cuts in social programs) – tell me that argument won’t play today. He is also known for his fast and decisive action in dealing with Hurricane Katrina. An issue, I think, that could be useful in separating him from the Bush Legacy – because if you think for one second George W. Bush won’t be mentioned or brought up as a 2012 boogieman, think again. The economy’s not getting better any time soon. Barbour can also claim credit for passing some of the nation’s toughest anti-abortion legislation, which may be all he needs to consolidate a rabid national base. Something, again, John McCain lacked.
Lastly, he’s pragmatic. Having once been a lobbyist, Barbour has frequently worked with the opposition without compromising his principles (even if he has raised taxes in some instances) by calling frequently for special legislative sessions to hammer important bills through. He is so respected by some on the other side of the aisle, that Barbour even received some pretty key Democratic endorsements while running for re-election.
He’s not without criticism, however. I won’t go into that now because as everyone knows, any time a Republican does something questionable, it can be found covered in great detail pretty much anywhere on the Internet.
My point is simple: this guy has it. Sadly, he probably won’t get nominated – he may not even run. But just as many didn’t expect Barack Obama to get nominated, let alone elected, don’t be surprised if this guy comes out of nowhere. He’s not a rockstar, but if the republicans want to win they can’t try to out-rockstar Barack Obama – you have to out-folksie him. This guy can do it. If nothing else, he’ll be a player. If he ran, that would be one ENTERTAINING race.
But still, if I had to put money on it, Mitt Romney will probably be the nominee. Probably.
I have to continuously remind myself that the Republican Party was not always the way it is today. They were once a proud party of sound ideals, morals, and character who stood as the legitimate opposition party to the democrats. Although the the insinuation may be pretty specious today, the republicans are still the party of Lincoln – however, it seems more and more apparent everyday that they are committed to being the party of Limbaugh.
That was never more clear than today when longtime Republican Senator Arlen Specter ditched his tenured party to join the likes of Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, and the rest of those who make up the Democratic Party. Specter had made a name for himself all the way back in the wake of the JFK assassination as assistant DA and co-author of the now infamous “magic bullet theory.” Specter cited that the continuous rightward lurch of the GOP as a contributing factor to his decision, while many need only look at the polls that show him considerably behind Pat Toomey in the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate Republican Primary.
This news, coupled with the new NBC News/WSJ poll out this evening that shows incredible popularity for the president and, to a lesser extent, approval for the Democratic Party, should make the Republicans feel nauseous. They have been eliminated in Congress in the Northeast, and are in danger of being extinct in the Pacific Northwest. They took the sound defeat of the moderate conservative John McCain as a sign that they weren’t conservative enough and are now pushing hard to the right on issues like spending, immigration, climate change, health care, and taxes. The only problem is that many, if not all, of the issues that the GOP has attached themselves too are in no way different from the positions held by John McCain in the presidential race – a race where their candidate was soundly rejected by the American People. McCain abandoned all the attributes that made him appealing to moderates and independents in the campaign – why do the Republicans think doubling down on these ideas will get them traction with the American people who say overwhelmingly (81%) they “personally like” President Obama? As so many have observed the GOP is in danger of becoming the “party of no.” Which altogether isn’t a bad thing if you’re in opposition to a unpopular president. But the Republican party is playing with fire if they choose to run as the anti-Obama party in the 2010 midterms if the president’s poll numbers stay anywhere near where they are now.
I don’t think president is as popular as these polls suggest. I also don’t think the Republican Party is as weak as they are being portrayed in the media. However, with Al Franken waiting in the wings to take his seat as the next Minnesota Senator, the Democrats are poised to have, at least on paper, the filibuster proof 60 seat majority in the Senate that would allow the Democrats to push through virtually any piece of legislation they want. Whether or not that’s a good thing remains to be seen – however, history shows us it almost never is.
